We cannot predict the weather. Metereologists can only make very educated guesses to do so. That’s my take, anyway. I think there can’t be anything more chaotic than the weather. Point in case: what happened yesterday down here in Venezuela wasn’t told in any weather forecast I had read recently. Heavy rains fell for over six hours causing major landslides in many parts of Caracas, the capital city. The suburb where I live was blocked for more than 24 hours since all its access routes were covered in mud; I didn’t even try to come home, staying at my girlfriend’s family’s house. Some people I know took more than six hours to get here. In a shantytown nearby, three people were buried alive, but two were rescued.
All this 48 hours before we have state and city elections on Sunday.
This was an eerie reminder of nine years ago. On December 12, 1999, freshly sworn-in President Hugo Chávez held a referendum to modify the Constitution, unaltered since 1968. Rumor has it that he received serious reports of potential emergencies in the coastal state of Vargas due to heavy rains since the beginning of the month, but he chose to ignore it (mind you, I’m repeating rumors here) so he could have the highest voter turn-out on that day. The “Yes” for the referendum won overwhelmingly. But on the 15th, it rained heavily for two hours —the equivalent of two months’ worth. And Vargas suffered dearly.
What happened yesterday was nowhere close to what happened in Vargas, but more than one remembered it. Chávez is still in power ten years later, only surpassed by early 20th-century dictator Juan Vicente Gómez (and 27 years in power are hard to beat). While very far from being a bloodthirsty dictator, he has very much become an autocrat, having full control of the Supreme Court, the main oil, communications, electric and steel companies, the National Assembly (though not as strongly as before) and many forms of media (TV channels, radio stations, newspapers). And he is aggressive, populist and —whether we like it or not—popular. For some, to a fanatic level. This man has become the new Fidel Castro —and he has oil money to back him up.
He has made good in following the democratic tango steps, that’s for sure. Since rising to power in 1998 —thanks to the popularity he achieved after commanding a failed coup in 1992 against failing president Carlos Andrés Pérez—, Chávez has held two Presidential elections, two regional elections, two National Assembly elections, and three referenda —the one for his Constitution, a recall in 2004 and a proposal for a Constitution amendment last year. And he has won all of them in landslide victories (especially the National Assembly elections in 2005, where all opposition candidates foolishly decided not to participate in protest). All save one —last year’s referendum, where his proposal to finally turn Venezuela into a socialist state was narrowly but decisively rejected by the population (nearly five million of his supporters did not vote). Since then, his once firm grip on power seems to be slipping.
And with that, we enter this election.
The President of Venezuela has a six-year term, and can be reelected once. Governors and mayors have four-year terms, and can be reelected twice. We also elect deputies for state and city representatives, all in direct, first-degree elections. During the last elections of this type in 2004, opposition lost in all but two of Venezuela’s 22 states (Zulia and Nueva Esparta). Mostly, it was because people did not trust the National Electoral Council, thought to be in the hands of mostly pro-government officials. The fact that some of the most attractive opposition candidates were prevented to participate by the Comptroller, including ridiculously popular Leopoldo López, who was aspiring for Caracas’ First Mayorship, put fear into many a heart. But last year’s defeat in the referendum —his first one since elected President— finally made Chávez look vulnerable. And people are reacting to it. I expect a huge turnout for these elections.
But there’s more. There are several political parties that support Chávez, but his own is called the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV, its initials in Spanish). They held candidate elections earlier this year, and supposedly those candidates were elected to win this Sunday’s elections. But suddenly, there were some “candidates” in key states that many people called “paratroopers” —not chosen by the people, but by the “finger”. And in many cases, they were candidates for states where there were dissidents from the government itself —Chávez’s traitors, as he calls them.
There’s Mario Isea, former Finance Minister (he was in office for less than three months before being “elected” candidate), running for the state governorship of Aragua, a small central state ruled by Didalco Bolívar, member of the Podemos party, once one of Chávez’s biggest supporters but since last year’s referendum campaign became one of its biggest critics. Bolívar put Henry Rosales, his right-hand man, to run against Isea. Actually, this one seems to be the closest race against a dissident the government is in; Isea is really a sort of prepared guy.
There’s Willian Lara, former Assemply president and Communications Minister, sent to conquer the rancher-state of Guárico, where Eduardo Manuitt has served two terms and, while not precisely the greatest leader, has done some good to the state, hard hit by the guerilla movements of Colombia. His daughter, Lenny, is young, attractive, energetic, and well-known in the state —all things of which Lara is certainly not. Not to mention that his urban ways sharply contrast with the rugged, rural guariqueños.
There’s Jesse Chacón, former Vice-president, Interior, Communications and Defense minister, who joined Chávez in the ‘92 coup, who is running for the state of Miranda’s second-largest borough, Sucre, in spite of living in a different one for at least three years. He goes against Carlos Ocariz, a former Congressman who has worked his entire life in Sucre and has tried at least three times to become mayor of the place. Third time’s the charm, they say.
Worst of all, there’s Mario Silva, a former TV host of a program called La Hojilla (The Razor), which wants to be serious journalism but is actually just there to cause hatred toward anyone who dares oppose the government, using foul language, threats, questionable denouncements and such to basically try and make the opposition truly look like the Boogeyman, something he has more than succeeded in doing to himself, actually. He’s running in Carabobo, the third most populated state in the country, site of the decisive battle for Independence in 1821. The local governor is a former National Guard coronel called Luis Felipe Acosta Carles, once Chávez’s favorite, famous for, I kid you not, appearing on television burping loudly while inspecting a Coca-Cola plant. Amidst heavy accusations of corruption, Acosta Carles fell heavily from Chávez’s favor, and he was expelled from the PSUV, but he decided to run independently, suddenly giving this wholesome, loving image so different from his former persona (I’ve spoken with the guy in person —he’s about as sincere as a used-car salesman). Now he and Silva will likely divide the government vote, which means that the opposition candidate, former governor Henrique “Pollo” Salas Feo, who served twice before and is in turn son of also former governor Henrique Salas Römer, has a much easier path to apparent victory. The fact that he actually had good terms only helps.
But wait, it gets better. In Sucre, an eastern coastal state, he recently called the Podemos candidate, another former governor (’tis the season to look back fondly, it seems) Eduardo Morales Gil “useless”. Apparently, he forgot that not twelve months before, he had praised the same man’s former term as governor. Don’t worry, if you can catch Globovision, our only 24-hour news channel, and staunchly oppositionist, you’ll find the clip. They play it some forty times a day.
Barinas must be a particularly hurtful situation for the Pres — the small, poor, rural state is his homeland (he was born in the little town of Sabaneta de Barians), and his family rules it, to quote the movie Road to Perdition, “as God rules the Earth”. But years of corruption accusations (ah, the good ol’ corruption cases) have put Barinas people’s patience to the test, and since Hugo de los Reyes Chávez, the Pres’ father, can’t run again, he sent older brother Adán to shut up the dissent. But Julio César Reyes, the mayor of the city’s capital, challenged the mighty Chávez clan and is apparently ready to make Barinas a dissident state. Oh, this is going to hurt Hugo’s ego bad. Real bad.
An interesting case is Henry Falcón, mayor of Barquisimeto, the capital of the western state of Lara. He belongs to the PSUV, but his work in the city has been flawless to the point that even the opposition representatives in the state admire his work. After a brief spat where he almost got kicked out f the party, like Manuitt and Acosta Carles, he is now certain to become Lara’s next governor, and many say it’s almost certain that he will break away from the government in one way or another, right before turning Lara into a thriving state, or so my sources in the state tell me.
And to top it all off, he has blatantly insulted —repeatedly and harshly— Zulia’s governor, Manuel Rosales (who inexplicably now runs for the mayorship of the state capital of Maracaibo) and the opposition candidate for the state, Pablo Pérez (Rosales’ protégé). Zulians are like Yankees, folks; they protect their own ferociously. Chávez —oh, sorry, the party— selected Maracaibo’s mayor, Giancarlo Di Martino, to run against Pérez. Di Martino had, admittedly, a decent term, but he’s got accusations of ties with Colombian guerrilla over his back, not to mention Rosales’ popularity. So Chávez’s rants are definitely not helping him —last I checked, and I say this very carefully, it didn’t seem that Chávez would be going into Maracaibo to celebrate next Monday.
All this is not to say that the opposition has done a perfect job. Two formerly very popular politics —former president of the Mayor Asscoiation Saadi Bijani, and comedian Benjamin Rausseo, known as “El Conde del Guácharo”— decided to run for governors of Zulia and the coastal state of Anzoátegui, refusing to join much more popular candidates in their respective states. In Maracaibo Bijani is a gnat, but Rausseo’s move almost guarantees that he will hurt mayor Gustavo Marcano’s chances and that Tarek William Saab, a former poet and congressman, serves a second term. Something similar is happening in Bolívar, the largest state and home to many of the basic industries, where another former governor, Andrés Velásquez, tried unsuccessfully to have the opposition concentrate on him, but inexplicably, some went to a government dissident, former general Antonio Rojas Suárez, who was also part of the ‘92 coup. That could hurt Velasquez’s chances of beating current governor Francisco Rangel Gómez (what is it with the politicians in this country craving three names?!), although I recently wrote a piece at work that says otherwise.
And then, there are places where, even with the government having either no chance at all or every chance to win, opposition parties still managed to screw it up. Libertador, Caracas’ largest borough, has been under government rule forever, and the PSUV has Jorge Rodríguez running for mayor, a former, in that order, Vice-President, party coordinator and president to the National Electoral Council. (Is there something wrong with this picture?) Who’s he running against? Stalin González, a 28-year-old student leader who became famous for being one of the visible heads of the renewed student movement from last year. Yup, his first job is to be mayor of a city of two million. What in God’s name were they thinking? Oh, and let’s not forget that former mayor and Presidential candidate “I-nevber-know-when-the-fuck-to-quit” Claudio Fermín is in the race, too.
The worst case is Chacao, Caracas’ richest borough, which is perhaps opposition’s strongest fort after Zulia. López made this tiny (100,000 or so) borough a thriving one, the envy of the rest of the city, so it is expected that anyone who takes the job from him will have some pretty big shoes to fill. López was convinced that one of the members of his staff, Emilio Graterón, would be selected, but their party, Un Nuevo Tiempo, perhaps not to give López too much power, decided to go with a former congresswoman called Liliana Hernández instead. Graterón broke ranks and still signed his candidacy as an independent. Both he and Hernández were joined in the race by Ramón Muchacho, who had served as prefect for Caracas when he worked under former First Mayor Alfredo Peña. Watching these three fight over who would win in Chacao was sort of like watching three puppies fight viciously over a bone —but, but, but they’re so cute! As a consequence, during this last week of campaigning I began to see the PSUV candidate, a pretty quiet, soft-spoken and even kind-looking young guy named Willians Torrez, a lot more on TV and other media. I highly, highly doubt that we will see López giving his job to a government candidate —that would almost be like Ralph Nader winning the U.S. election— but the possibility of a punishment vote is always there. Who knows?
As you can see, we may not be as high-profile as a cool-looking, smooth-speaking, charismatic Black man winning the most powerful job on Earth, but when it comes to elections, we sure can sound interesting. If I did pique your interest, you might want to check out Caracas Chronicles, a political blog that explains Venzuelan politics waaay better (and funnier) than I do. This is their map of predictions for these elections, and a detailed, state-by-state prediction of results for Sunday. We’ll see on Sunday who got it right.
November 22, 2008
Venezuelans choose this Sunday
Posted by jaycer17 under comment, news, opinion, politics, rambling | Tags: comment, elections, opinion, politics, venezuela |Leave a Comment
All this 48 hours before we have state and city elections on Sunday.
This was an eerie reminder of nine years ago. On December 12, 1999, freshly sworn-in President Hugo Chávez held a referendum to modify the Constitution, unaltered since 1968. Rumor has it that he received serious reports of potential emergencies in the coastal state of Vargas due to heavy rains since the beginning of the month, but he chose to ignore it (mind you, I’m repeating rumors here) so he could have the highest voter turn-out on that day. The “Yes” for the referendum won overwhelmingly. But on the 15th, it rained heavily for two hours —the equivalent of two months’ worth. And Vargas suffered dearly.
What happened yesterday was nowhere close to what happened in Vargas, but more than one remembered it. Chávez is still in power ten years later, only surpassed by early 20th-century dictator Juan Vicente Gómez (and 27 years in power are hard to beat). While very far from being a bloodthirsty dictator, he has very much become an autocrat, having full control of the Supreme Court, the main oil, communications, electric and steel companies, the National Assembly (though not as strongly as before) and many forms of media (TV channels, radio stations, newspapers). And he is aggressive, populist and —whether we like it or not—popular. For some, to a fanatic level. This man has become the new Fidel Castro —and he has oil money to back him up.
He has made good in following the democratic tango steps, that’s for sure. Since rising to power in 1998 —thanks to the popularity he achieved after commanding a failed coup in 1992 against failing president Carlos Andrés Pérez—, Chávez has held two Presidential elections, two regional elections, two National Assembly elections, and three referenda —the one for his Constitution, a recall in 2004 and a proposal for a Constitution amendment last year. And he has won all of them in landslide victories (especially the National Assembly elections in 2005, where all opposition candidates foolishly decided not to participate in protest). All save one —last year’s referendum, where his proposal to finally turn Venezuela into a socialist state was narrowly but decisively rejected by the population (nearly five million of his supporters did not vote). Since then, his once firm grip on power seems to be slipping.
And with that, we enter this election.
The President of Venezuela has a six-year term, and can be reelected once. Governors and mayors have four-year terms, and can be reelected twice. We also elect deputies for state and city representatives, all in direct, first-degree elections. During the last elections of this type in 2004, opposition lost in all but two of Venezuela’s 22 states (Zulia and Nueva Esparta). Mostly, it was because people did not trust the National Electoral Council, thought to be in the hands of mostly pro-government officials. The fact that some of the most attractive opposition candidates were prevented to participate by the Comptroller, including ridiculously popular Leopoldo López, who was aspiring for Caracas’ First Mayorship, put fear into many a heart. But last year’s defeat in the referendum —his first one since elected President— finally made Chávez look vulnerable. And people are reacting to it. I expect a huge turnout for these elections.
But there’s more. There are several political parties that support Chávez, but his own is called the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV, its initials in Spanish). They held candidate elections earlier this year, and supposedly those candidates were elected to win this Sunday’s elections. But suddenly, there were some “candidates” in key states that many people called “paratroopers” —not chosen by the people, but by the “finger”. And in many cases, they were candidates for states where there were dissidents from the government itself —Chávez’s traitors, as he calls them.
There’s Mario Isea, former Finance Minister (he was in office for less than three months before being “elected” candidate), running for the state governorship of Aragua, a small central state ruled by Didalco Bolívar, member of the Podemos party, once one of Chávez’s biggest supporters but since last year’s referendum campaign became one of its biggest critics. Bolívar put Henry Rosales, his right-hand man, to run against Isea. Actually, this one seems to be the closest race against a dissident the government is in; Isea is really a sort of prepared guy.
There’s Willian Lara, former Assemply president and Communications Minister, sent to conquer the rancher-state of Guárico, where Eduardo Manuitt has served two terms and, while not precisely the greatest leader, has done some good to the state, hard hit by the guerilla movements of Colombia. His daughter, Lenny, is young, attractive, energetic, and well-known in the state —all things of which Lara is certainly not. Not to mention that his urban ways sharply contrast with the rugged, rural guariqueños.
There’s Jesse Chacón, former Vice-president, Interior, Communications and Defense minister, who joined Chávez in the ‘92 coup, who is running for the state of Miranda’s second-largest borough, Sucre, in spite of living in a different one for at least three years. He goes against Carlos Ocariz, a former Congressman who has worked his entire life in Sucre and has tried at least three times to become mayor of the place. Third time’s the charm, they say.
Worst of all, there’s Mario Silva, a former TV host of a program called La Hojilla (The Razor), which wants to be serious journalism but is actually just there to cause hatred toward anyone who dares oppose the government, using foul language, threats, questionable denouncements and such to basically try and make the opposition truly look like the Boogeyman, something he has more than succeeded in doing to himself, actually. He’s running in Carabobo, the third most populated state in the country, site of the decisive battle for Independence in 1821. The local governor is a former National Guard coronel called Luis Felipe Acosta Carles, once Chávez’s favorite, famous for, I kid you not, appearing on television burping loudly while inspecting a Coca-Cola plant. Amidst heavy accusations of corruption, Acosta Carles fell heavily from Chávez’s favor, and he was expelled from the PSUV, but he decided to run independently, suddenly giving this wholesome, loving image so different from his former persona (I’ve spoken with the guy in person —he’s about as sincere as a used-car salesman). Now he and Silva will likely divide the government vote, which means that the opposition candidate, former governor Henrique “Pollo” Salas Feo, who served twice before and is in turn son of also former governor Henrique Salas Römer, has a much easier path to apparent victory. The fact that he actually had good terms only helps.
But wait, it gets better. In Sucre, an eastern coastal state, he recently called the Podemos candidate, another former governor (’tis the season to look back fondly, it seems) Eduardo Morales Gil “useless”. Apparently, he forgot that not twelve months before, he had praised the same man’s former term as governor. Don’t worry, if you can catch Globovision, our only 24-hour news channel, and staunchly oppositionist, you’ll find the clip. They play it some forty times a day.
Barinas must be a particularly hurtful situation for the Pres — the small, poor, rural state is his homeland (he was born in the little town of Sabaneta de Barians), and his family rules it, to quote the movie Road to Perdition, “as God rules the Earth”. But years of corruption accusations (ah, the good ol’ corruption cases) have put Barinas people’s patience to the test, and since Hugo de los Reyes Chávez, the Pres’ father, can’t run again, he sent older brother Adán to shut up the dissent. But Julio César Reyes, the mayor of the city’s capital, challenged the mighty Chávez clan and is apparently ready to make Barinas a dissident state. Oh, this is going to hurt Hugo’s ego bad. Real bad.
An interesting case is Henry Falcón, mayor of Barquisimeto, the capital of the western state of Lara. He belongs to the PSUV, but his work in the city has been flawless to the point that even the opposition representatives in the state admire his work. After a brief spat where he almost got kicked out f the party, like Manuitt and Acosta Carles, he is now certain to become Lara’s next governor, and many say it’s almost certain that he will break away from the government in one way or another, right before turning Lara into a thriving state, or so my sources in the state tell me.
And to top it all off, he has blatantly insulted —repeatedly and harshly— Zulia’s governor, Manuel Rosales (who inexplicably now runs for the mayorship of the state capital of Maracaibo) and the opposition candidate for the state, Pablo Pérez (Rosales’ protégé). Zulians are like Yankees, folks; they protect their own ferociously. Chávez —oh, sorry, the party— selected Maracaibo’s mayor, Giancarlo Di Martino, to run against Pérez. Di Martino had, admittedly, a decent term, but he’s got accusations of ties with Colombian guerrilla over his back, not to mention Rosales’ popularity. So Chávez’s rants are definitely not helping him —last I checked, and I say this very carefully, it didn’t seem that Chávez would be going into Maracaibo to celebrate next Monday.
All this is not to say that the opposition has done a perfect job. Two formerly very popular politics —former president of the Mayor Asscoiation Saadi Bijani, and comedian Benjamin Rausseo, known as “El Conde del Guácharo”— decided to run for governors of Zulia and the coastal state of Anzoátegui, refusing to join much more popular candidates in their respective states. In Maracaibo Bijani is a gnat, but Rausseo’s move almost guarantees that he will hurt mayor Gustavo Marcano’s chances and that Tarek William Saab, a former poet and congressman, serves a second term. Something similar is happening in Bolívar, the largest state and home to many of the basic industries, where another former governor, Andrés Velásquez, tried unsuccessfully to have the opposition concentrate on him, but inexplicably, some went to a government dissident, former general Antonio Rojas Suárez, who was also part of the ‘92 coup. That could hurt Velasquez’s chances of beating current governor Francisco Rangel Gómez (what is it with the politicians in this country craving three names?!), although I recently wrote a piece at work that says otherwise.
And then, there are places where, even with the government having either no chance at all or every chance to win, opposition parties still managed to screw it up. Libertador, Caracas’ largest borough, has been under government rule forever, and the PSUV has Jorge Rodríguez running for mayor, a former, in that order, Vice-President, party coordinator and president to the National Electoral Council. (Is there something wrong with this picture?) Who’s he running against? Stalin González, a 28-year-old student leader who became famous for being one of the visible heads of the renewed student movement from last year. Yup, his first job is to be mayor of a city of two million. What in God’s name were they thinking? Oh, and let’s not forget that former mayor and Presidential candidate “I-nevber-know-when-the-fuck-to-quit” Claudio Fermín is in the race, too.
The worst case is Chacao, Caracas’ richest borough, which is perhaps opposition’s strongest fort after Zulia. López made this tiny (100,000 or so) borough a thriving one, the envy of the rest of the city, so it is expected that anyone who takes the job from him will have some pretty big shoes to fill. López was convinced that one of the members of his staff, Emilio Graterón, would be selected, but their party, Un Nuevo Tiempo, perhaps not to give López too much power, decided to go with a former congresswoman called Liliana Hernández instead. Graterón broke ranks and still signed his candidacy as an independent. Both he and Hernández were joined in the race by Ramón Muchacho, who had served as prefect for Caracas when he worked under former First Mayor Alfredo Peña. Watching these three fight over who would win in Chacao was sort of like watching three puppies fight viciously over a bone —but, but, but they’re so cute! As a consequence, during this last week of campaigning I began to see the PSUV candidate, a pretty quiet, soft-spoken and even kind-looking young guy named Willians Torrez, a lot more on TV and other media. I highly, highly doubt that we will see López giving his job to a government candidate —that would almost be like Ralph Nader winning the U.S. election— but the possibility of a punishment vote is always there. Who knows?
As you can see, we may not be as high-profile as a cool-looking, smooth-speaking, charismatic Black man winning the most powerful job on Earth, but when it comes to elections, we sure can sound interesting. If I did pique your interest, you might want to check out Caracas Chronicles, a political blog that explains Venzuelan politics waaay better (and funnier) than I do. This is their map of predictions for these elections, and a detailed, state-by-state prediction of results for Sunday. We’ll see on Sunday who got it right.